| Will Russia Save the West ? MOSCOW – Rapid changes in the global economy and international politics are raising , once more , an eternal issue in Russia : the country’s relations with Europe , and with the Euro-Atlantic region as a whole . Of course , Russia partly belongs to this region . Yet it cannot and does not want to join the West wholeheartedly – at least not yet . Meanwhile , this choice looks very different now compared to just a few years ago . It is becoming obvious that the Euro-Atlantic world , whose economic and political model seemed so triumphant 20 years ago , is now lagging somewhat behind China and other Asian countries . So is Russia , where , despite encouraging talk about innovation-based development , the economy continues to de-modernize as corruption has been allowed to metastasize , and as the country relies increasingly on its natural-resource wealth . Indeed , it is Asia that has turned out to be the true winner of the Cold War . These rising powers raise problems regarding Russia’s geo-strategic choices . For the first time in decades , the values gap between Russia and the EU appears to be increasing . Europe is overcoming state nationalism , while Russia is building a nation state . Broken by history and not wishing to be ravaged by war again , Europeans have embraced compromise and renounced the direct use of force in international relations . Russians , on the other hand , emphasize their “ hard power , ” including military force , because they know that they live in a dangerous world and have no one to hide behind . And , because of the country’s comparative lack of “ soft power ” – social , cultural , and economic attractiveness – it stands ready to use the competitive advantages ( i. e. , its resource wealth ) available to it . Internal political developments in Russia are also pushing the country in a different direction from the West . Quite simply , Russia is moving away from democracy . This emerging values gap is not an insurmountable obstacle to geostrategic rapprochement . But , coupled with mutual irritation , which is particularly strong in Russia , closing the gap is becoming much harder . For , while Russia ’ s elite never considered itself defeated in the Cold War , the West essentially treated Russia as a defeated country – an attitude symbolized by NATO’s eastward expansion , which laid a deep foundation for ongoing tension . It was only after the West encountered an armed rebuff in South Ossetia that NATO expansion was stopped in its tracks . Yet NATO has not given up on further enlargement . NATO expansion is nothing more than the extension of its zone of influence – and in the most sensitive , military-political sphere . And yet the West’s unwillingness to abandon that effort is coupled with a repeated refusal to recognize Russia’s right to have its own zone of interest . So NATO expansion has left the Cold War unfinished . The ideological and military confrontation that underlay it is gone , but the geopolitical rivalry that it entailed has returned to the fore . Thus , the old mentality survived on both sides . Energy debates are another example of this . Non-Russian Europe should thank the Almighty for the presence of energy-rich Russia at its borders , while Russia should be thankful for having such wealthy customers . But the natural differences in the interests of energy consumers and producers have been given a political/security twist – witness the discussions about an “ Energy NATO . ” F aced with the impossibility of advantageous accession to Euro-Atlantic institutions , Russia is drifting fast towards alignment with China – a “ younger brother , ” though a respected one . Russia’s “ Asian choice ” of today is not the same as the Slavophile/Eurasian choice of the past . On the surface , it looks like a choice in favor of a rapidly rising civilization . But the current estrangement from Europe – the cradle of Russian civilization and modernization – threatens Russia’s identity and will increase its geostrategic risks in the future . Europe does not benefit from this estrangement either . It will continue to move towards beautiful decay – Venice writ large . The United States also loses . Without Russia , which will remain the world’s third strongest power for the foreseeable future , it is impossible to solve the key problems of international security . The current Euro-Atlantic security architecture seems to suit the majority of Americans and Europeans , though it is becoming increasingly fragile and counterproductive . So Russia will struggle to create a new architecture largely on its own – whether through a new treaty on collective European security , or even through its accession to NATO . This is not only in Russian political and civilizational interest , but it also reflects our duty to the entire community of Euro-Atlantic nations , which is being weakened by the “ unfinished Cold War . ” The idea of a “ Union of Europe ” between Russia and the EU should be put on the long-term agenda . That Union should be based on a common human , economic , and energy space . The combination of a new security arrangement for the Euro-Atlantic community and the establishment of the Union of Europe could arrest the decline in the international weight of the West . |