| The End of the Russia-China Debate Ten years ago , comparing the reform processes in China and Russia was an intellectual fashion . Was it preferable to start with economics – try and get rich , quick , but don’t rock the boat politically – in the manner of the Chinese ? Or was it better to start with politics – recover liberty and prosperity may follow – which seemed to be Russia’s path under Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin ? Today , a new comparative debate has started . This time the subject is no longer Russia versus China , because Russia has long ceased to be a point of comparison . Instead , the new comparative debate involves Asia’s two new economic , demographic , and political giants , China and India . China’s annual economic growth has been roughly 8-9 % for the last 26 years ; India has recorded similar rates for the last decade . In the “ flat world ” of globalization – to borrow Thomas Friedman’s powerful metaphor – it seems that Russia no longer has a place . Of course , Russia is still the second-largest nuclear power in the world , and , as one of the world’s leading exporters of oil and gas , it benefits from today’s high energy prices . But Russia’s population is disappearing before our eyes . With average male life expectancy just 57 years , the country is losing close to 800,000 people annually . Indeed , Russia is more a fragile oil-producing state than a modernizing economic giant . To put it bluntly , Russia is no longer in the same category as China . Whereas the “ Middle Kingdom ” is proudly regaining its former global status after centuries of decline , Russia is defiantly trying to resurrect its former imperial status , but in a manner that appears doomed to fail . Russia has clearly taken giant steps in the wrong direction , at a time when China has taken steps , however small , in the right direction . When you meet today’s “ new Russian Nomenklatura , ” you experience a sudden feeling of being 20 years younger , awash as they are in nostalgia for Cold War posturing . By contrast , seen from afar , in their new suits , you might think that Chinese economic elites are Japanese . Where Russia represents a return to the past , one sees in China an opening , however ambiguous , to the future . Of course , some bias is involved here . As a European , I and people like me almost instinctively expect more from Russia . It is , after all , a European nation in cultural , if not political terms , whereas progress in China will not be measured by the introduction of Western-style democracy , but eventually , one hopes , by Singapore-style rule of law . The diverse paths followed by Russia and China may be explained in part by how the two peoples perceive themselves . The Chinese are comforted in their self-image by the world’s combination of admiration for their dynamism , greed for the market they constitute , and apprehension for the competition they represent . Russians , by contrast , seem to be animated by a dark form of narcissism . They do not find anything to be proud of in the eyes of others . They are respected for what they control – the Soviet legacy of nuclear arms and “ Christian energy resources , ” to quote Vladimir Putin’s bizarre remark on his first official trip to Paris – but not for their economic performance or their essence . China and Russia tend to relate to their respective pasts and futures in very different ways – with self-confidence in China’s case , with self-diffidence in the case of Russia . Chinese elites are convinced that time is working in their favor , and that it is only natural that China should regain its rank amongst the world leading powers , perhaps even emerging on top one day . Indeed , their serene patience stands in stark contrast to the anxious reticence of Russian leaders , who have yet to surmount the humiliation that Russia suffered as a result of the Soviet Union’s disintegration at the end of the Cold War . Russia may be experiencing a global “ restoration ” phase , but in politics and economics , and also with respect to its empire , restoration is headed in the wrong direction . With Putin’s current clampdown on civil society , re-nationalization of key segments of the economy , failure to develop any political approach to resolving the conflict in Chechnya , and cultivation of imperial nostalgia , Russia is killing its only chance to matter in the future . Yet there is no reason for China to declare victory . The gap between the respective qualities of China’s economic and scientific elites , on the one hand , and its ruling political elites , on the other , is simply too monumental – and still growing – for stability to be taken for granted . One senses in China the birth pangs of civil society , making the introduction of the rule of law increasingly urgent . Without political reforms , China’s confidence in herself will quickly turn into disillusion , or even delusion . If that happens , the Russia-China debate might be revived , this time as a comparison of competitive decadence . |