| China and a New Balance of Power SHANGHAI – The last rival superpower to the United States , the Soviet Union , collapsed in 1991. But , apart from its military strength , the USSR was never really powerful enough to counterbalance US influence . In the late 1980’s , Japan seemed capable of challenging America’s industrial leadership , but by the 1990’s it lost its competitive edge . China might itself wish to be a major force in a multi-polar world , but has been plagued by its lack of overall strength . Given these realities , China sees the expanding European Union as a likely counterweight to unchecked US power . In terms of economic output , today’s EU is on par with the US . But it has yet to build a strong defense system that can respond effectively either to regional contingencies or to global needs . What would be the strength of such a system if and when it is developed , and how will it compare with that of the US ? In assessing America’s strength , China follows US debates on the merits of a uni-polar or a multi-polar world with keen interest . Some Americans favor a uni-polar system in which the US dominates . Such a Pax Americana would cost the country less to sustain , but the world would worry if America adopts a wrong policy , as has been the case in Iraq . The US certainly has a right to curb terrorists like those who staged the attack on September 11 , 2001. But the “ war on terror ” did not warrant the decision to attack a sovereign state and topple its government on the flawed presumption that it housed weapons of mass destruction and was linked to the 2001 attacks . The US went to war despite strong opposition from France , Germany , Russia , China , and other United Nations Security Council members . France and Germany have since sought to restore good relations with the US , but continue to disapprove of the war . The Middle East , always a region of concern for Europe , has become even less stable as a result of the war . American leadership has been one of the war’s casualties . In China , the concept of an independent European defense – embodied in the European Security and Defense Policy ( ESDP ) , as well as the EU’s Rapid Reaction Force ( RRF ) and various police missions – is thus generally seen as necessary and effective in a multi-polar world system . China observes that on most security matters , the ESDP will ( for now ) mimic American security interests , because the EU and US share fundamental values of human rights and democracy . Moreover , many EU members have simultaneously pledged their defense capabilities to NATO , which has been led by the US since its creation . But the ESDP , once fully developed , will not necessarily follow America’s lead unconditionally , especially if American policy continues to deviate from the norm of international law , as in Iraq . As a result of acquiring a pan-European defense capacity , the Europeans are likely to play a more independent role than at present in managing intra-European security relations and carrying out global missions . China welcomes this expanded security role for the EU . Although it remains wary of international intervention by the EU , the substance and pattern of ESDP operations are likely to win China’s respect for several reasons . First , China’s leaders note that the ESDP gives priority to the legitimacy of its missions . So far , all ESDP missions have respected international law and governmental arrangements among disputing parties . Most of its military or police missions have been based on UN Security Council resolutions , and ESDP missions outside Europe have been at the invitation of local authorities . Of course , ESDP security missions , even those in accordance with Security Council resolutions , may not operate within the UN system – the EU prefers its own independent leadership . The ESDP does not necessarily require Security Council authorization as a condition for its missions , and it retains an independent role in executing them . However , when compared with the US , the ESDP ( in Chinese eyes ) cares far more about international legitimacy , backed by the authority of the UN . Second , the ESDP is concerned with good governance and institution building . The EU is keen to restore or establish human rights , stability , and prosperity . Outside Europe , the ESDP acts to enhance governance rather than promote regime change , and the EU has often assisted governments ’ efforts to improve security conditions . Third , the ESDP is open to international cooperation . The EU works with either non-EU states , such as NATO members like Canada , Norway , and Turkey , or applicants for EU membership . The ESDP cooperates with the UN and other regional organizations , such as the African Union and ASEAN . When the EU reaches out , it tends to play a leading role in these collaborations . There are good reasons to expect that China will continue to accept an independent European security mechanism . There is little concern , if any , about the ESDP intervening in internal Chinese affairs , such as Taiwan . Indeed , China wants a strong and independent Europe , and from that vantage point it is not too early for China to envisage a truly multi-polar global system . |