#!/usr/bin/perl

# This script is used to do a statistical comparative analysis of 

use Statistics::Distributions;
use strict;

my $alpha = 0.95; # acceptable confidence in not making a type 1 error
		  # i.e. assume that the means are different
my $lambda = 50;  # desired lambda for TCR calculation

if ( scalar(@ARGV) < 2 ) {
	print STDERR "Usage: compare-models [validate1] [validate2]\n";
	exit 1;
}

my (@fp1, @fn1, @tcr1);

# allow dir names to be specified, too, for brevity
if (-f "$ARGV[0]/validate") { $ARGV[0] .= "/validate"; }
if (-f "$ARGV[1]/validate") { $ARGV[1] .= "/validate"; }

open (FILE, $ARGV[0]) || die $!;
while (<FILE>) {
	my @x = split(/\s+/);
	push (@fp1, $x[2] / ($x[0] + $x[2]));
	push (@fn1, $x[3] / ($x[1] + $x[3]));
	push (@tcr1, $x[1] / ($x[3] + $lambda * $x[2]));
}
close (FILE);

my (@fp2, @fn2, @tcr2);

open (FILE, $ARGV[1]) || die $!;
while (<FILE>) {
	my @x = split(/\s+/);
	push (@fp2, $x[2] / ($x[0] + $x[2]));
	push (@fn2, $x[3] / ($x[1] + $x[3]));
	push (@tcr2, $x[1] / ($x[3] + $lambda * $x[2]));
}
close (FILE);

stat_analysis ("False positives", "pct", \@fp1, \@fp2);
stat_analysis ("False negatives", "pct", \@fn1, \@fn2);
stat_analysis ("TCR (lambda=$lambda)", "lin", \@tcr1, \@tcr2);

sub stat_analysis {
	my $title = shift;
	my $pct = shift;
	my $s1 = shift;
	my $s2 = shift;

	unless ( scalar(@$s1) == scalar(@$s1) ) {
		print STDERR "Can't compute stats for $title.  Samples are not paired.\n";
		return;
	}

	# This is the number of degrees of freedom of the two sample sets (i.e.
	# the number of samples in each set).
	my $dof = scalar(@{$s1});

	print "$title:\n";

	# Compute the mean and standard deviation of the first sample
	# mean = 1/n * sum(s[i])
	my $mean_s1 = 0;
	foreach my $i (1..$dof) {
		$mean_s1 += $$s1[$i];
	}
	$mean_s1 /= $dof;

	# var = 1/(n-1) * sum((mean - s[i])^2)
	my $var_s1 = 0;
	foreach my $i (1..$dof) {
		$var_s1 += ($mean_s1 - $$s1[$i])**2;
	}
	$var_s1 /= $dof - 1;

	# std = sqrt(var)
	my $std_s1 = sqrt($var_s1);

	# Compute the mean and standard deviation of the second sample
	# mean = 1/n * sum(s[i])
	my $mean_s2 = 0;
	foreach my $i (1..$dof) {
		$mean_s2 += $$s2[$i];
	}
	$mean_s2 /= $dof;

	# var = 1/(n-1) * sum((mean - s[i])^2)
	my $var_s2 = 0;
	foreach my $i (1..$dof) {
		$var_s2 += ($mean_s2 - $$s2[$i])**2;
	}
	$var_s2 /= $dof - 1;

	# std = sqrt(var)
	my $std_s2 = sqrt($var_s2);

	# SA developers like percentage points instead of probabilities.
	if ( $pct eq "pct" ) {
		printf "\tSample 1: mean=%0.4f%% std=%0.4f\n",100*$mean_s1,100*$std_s1;
		printf "\tSample 2: mean=%0.4f%% std=%0.4f\n",100*$mean_s2,100*$std_s2;
	} else {
		printf "\tSample 1: mean=%0.4f std=%0.4f\n",$mean_s1,$std_s1;
		printf "\tSample 2: mean=%0.4f std=%0.4f\n",$mean_s2,$std_s2;
	}

	# Compute the mean of the differences between the two samples
	my $mean_d = 0;
	foreach my $i (1..$dof) {
		$mean_d += $$s1[$i] - $$s2[$i];
	}
	$mean_d /= $dof;

	# Compute the variance of the differences between the two samples
	my $var_d = 0;
	foreach my $i (1..$dof) {
		$var_d += ($mean_d - $$s1[$i] + $$s2[$i])**2;
	}
	$var_d /= $dof - 1;
	my $std_d = sqrt($var_d);

	# To determine whether two samples are from the same distribution
	# (i.e. they have the same mean), we are going to use a paired sample
	# t-test.  You can find more information about this in Tom Mitchell's
	# "Machine Learning" book.
	
	# Let t = mean / (var * sqrt(n))
	my $tstat;
	if ( $var_d > 0 ) {
		$tstat = $mean_d / sqrt($var_d / $dof);
	} else {
		$tstat = 0;
	}

	# Now we find the critical value of t for the alpha% confidence
	# interval.
	my $tcrit = Statistics::Distributions::tdistr ($dof, (1-$alpha)/2);

	# This is the probability that the two distributions are from different
	# means.
	my $tprob = 1-Statistics::Distributions::tprob ($dof, abs($tstat))/2;

	# If the t statistic is less than the critical value, this means that
	# we should accept the null hypothesis (the distributions have the same
	# mean), otherwise it should be accepted.
	if ( abs($tstat) < $tcrit ) {
		printf "\tNot statistically significantly different (alpha=%0.4f)\n", $alpha;
	} else {
		printf "\tStatistically significantly different with confidence %0.4f%%\n", 100*$tprob;
	}

	# This displays an estimate of the confidence interval around the
	# estimated mean difference between the two samples.  Bear in mind that
	# the t statistic is working on the local differences and not the
	# global difference.
	if ( $pct eq "pct" ) {
		printf "\tEstimated difference: %0.4f%% +/- %0.4f\n", 100*$mean_d, 100*$std_d*$tcrit;
	} else {
		printf "\tEstimated difference: %0.4f +/- %0.4f\n", $mean_d, $std_d*$tcrit;
	}

	print "\n";
}